i don't know, lb. kazys said don't expect to be building anything. we've been building all year, just different things, less expensive things, things that take more design and construction solutions for less compensation. the construction industry is bad, but not dead. the upside is that bids are coming in so low that we can do things we couldn't afford in an up economy.
i'm excited that i'm already hearing more of what kazys suggested, though - a sort of welling up of exuberant fantasy proposals on a large scale: visions of a potential future. architects (because they have time) i guess, are thinking big and being visionary again. whether it's foster or work ac, mad or big, designers are finally creating positive and hopeful visions of a sustainable future city rather than attacking sustainability via incremental live-lesser problem-solving reactions.
dan wood bemoaned the lack of this kind of big thinking when he was here in ky - reminding us of antfarm, superstudio, archigram, yona freedman - but i think it was already beginning to happen anyway.
architects can be idea people again, not just drafters of designs clients already 'designed'. i'm seeing it happen to little firms: clients are actually coming to us for ideas sometimes! crazy, i know!
the question is...who will pay for the big ideas? or even the small ideas? the money sources whether it be lending from the bailed out ones or money from governments is not flowing.
I feel like the dust is starting to settle from the economic devastation to the architecture profession. That's not a good thing -- it just means that there are hardly any more people to lay off and projects still aren't coming back for many. It looks a lot like the early 90s where there are massive comercial and real estate vacancies.
Now we are seeing some pretty reputable firms go completely under (Cubellis) or get swallowed up by largers firms (Elerbe Becket ny AECOM).
I expect that we will be hearing a lot more stories like these in 2010.
If this coming decade turns out to be like the 1990's it wouldn't be a bad thing. It started out ugly, but the longest period of sustained growth in US history occurred during the 1990's. I think that we have already come through the ugly part and are on our way toward stabilization.
As with the 1990's, investors are already picking up commercial real estate at bargain prices. The difference this time is that now we have more global investors. We also have more opportunities for new projects domestically and internationally.
As with previous recessions, credit will become more available with time...as it already has. Money is flowing, it's just not at the rate as it was pre-recession...yet. Confidence that we can overcome our economic troubles is growing.
As for the architecture profession...I am already seeing some job ads for architects with retail, multi-family and mixed-use projects experience. They are not as prevalent as job ads for architects with health care, institutional and government project experience, but none the less. Custom homes and addition/remodels have been picking up over the last few months as well.
Things have definetly improved over the last couple of quarters and I think that the economy will continue to improve. I look forward to 2010 and the coming decade.
BORING PROPHET: There shall, in that time, be rumors of things going astray, erm, and there shall be a great confusion as to where things really are, and nobody will really know where lieth those little things wi-- with the sort of raffia work base that has an attachment. At this time, a friend shall lose his friend's hammer and the young shall not know where lieth the things possessed by their fathers that their fathers put there only just the night before, about eight o'clock. Yea, it is written in the book of Cyril that, in that time, shall the third one...
Yea, verily, at that time, it is written in the book of Obadiah. A man shall strike his donkey and his nephew's donkey and anyone...in the vicinity...of his nephew or the donkey....
there are those who have money even in this recession, cash heavy businesses and owners who will be investing as the economy skids along the bottom, "buying in" either by investing in the next big ideas, investing in people and technology, building a better organization, restructuring and positioning to take advantage of the market when it returns... time to refresh your business, reposition and develop marketing strategy
every bad recession there are those who predict the end of the end of the world as we know it, and then it turns out to be a valley in the rolling economic and business cycle...
firms will start to get bits of work here and there over the course of the next year... and we start to see a real recovery towards the end of 2010, new investment being made as people take advantage of the cheaper construction costs, interest rates etc. hopefully
i predict another real estate crash as millions of boomers retire and attempt to sell their investment properties, flooding the market and driving down prices... in fact i'm counting on it as the only way i'm going to be able to afford a reasonable place.
- architecture firms figure out how to truly 'diversify' their practices. and i'm not talking about project types - those who will survive will figure out how to diversify their revenue streams, create new service categories, and generally broaden what it is that they 'do'.
- firms learn how to run very, very lean. this won't be good for people looking to just plug into a firm, put in their 40 and go home, but leaner practices help the profession overall in the long run. having less people do more will actually (and paradoxically) increase our profession's overall footprint
- true expertise is given its due reward. it's time to prove we're truly experts in something, whether that's as unglamorous as sanitation facilities or as sexy as art museums. there is work out there - owners just have the luxury of picking those firms who can demonstrate a real track record of achievement. those that can will continue to do well. sure, there may be some overall dip in work, but i'm seeing some firms actually growing in this economy. btw - this applies to everyone from the one man start up as well as a global design firm.
- the rise of architecture collaboratives. there's too many newly minted 'firms', unemployed wanderers, and generally underutilized people in the churn right now. major victories are going to go to the people who figure out how to productively channel that talent to make a run at certain projects. these don't have to be long term relationships, but it's a difference between wanting to plug into an existing infrastructure (ie an established firm) vs. creating a temporal infrastructure to get the work.
- steady singles will be more valuable than home runs. everyone loves the thrill of a jacked up ball, but the firms which survive will be the ones who compile a ton of (potentially boring) singles and walks.
- rem doesn't get to build any of his dubai hallucinations.
the worst trends for 2010:
- no increase in work. we simply have too much commercial real estate which will default this year to see any real increase in the private sector work overall. the banks are hoping this wave doesn't build up to the frenzied levels of the 08 residential market. every gov't. client we have is freaked out about how to fund the operations of the new buildings they're putting up, never mind funding design and/or construction. we've seen two projects fall into this trap. point being, the one market that's been steadier is going to erode more this year than last.
- we're still at serious risk for an overall double dip recession. which will push recovery out another year or two. or 10.
- we have a ton of graduates coming online with nowhere to place them. just the reality folks - some will get jobs, but it's not going to be pretty this may/june.
- deflationary wage pressures continue to press on the industry. what i see so little reporting on is how many people have either had to take flat out pay reductions (still working the same hours) or take pay cuts with reduced hours. either way, there is a real danger of firms getting way too addicted to these reduced direct costs when putting fee proposals together, thus lowballing to the point where they HAVE to keep everyone at a lower salary just to break even. we've seen enough proposals the last few months that just flat out say 'here's the fee being offered' from every gov't. agency (and they're all about 2% of construction cost lower than what we were getting even 18 mo. ago) that this one fact alone is making me wonder how to keep the practice profitable (ever).
finally, the worst trend of 2010 will be a persistent cloud of uncertainty over everything in our world. it's not good for the psyche to operate under a unrelenting feeling of uneasy pressure and preparation for the worst. we'd all love to see something, anything which will tell us when the storm might pass. it's not going to come this year, i'm afraid.
i'm not suggesting any comparison to that era - i am saying, though, that the personal lives for a lot of people are in a state of not so good flux. that kind of uncertainty produces anxiety. tell me where anxiety (on a personal level) is good?
think more vertically, less horizontally. if you're an expert on healthcare, you could offer facilities management, design new facilities, provide construction management (not at risk) on other projects, specifically offer masterplanning and programming services, and conceivably design products (beds for example) that could be carried to market. that's 5 different revenue streams off your expertise. only one is what we consider 'traditional' architecture practice.
outed - every firm I've worked for who has been around for more than 15 years does this. You simply cannot survive even in good times if you only offer design and/or CDs. I thought this was common knowledge.
for some reason I heard "diversity of services" and I thought things outside of what clients typically expect.
Don't be fooled by the "RA RA RA!!! " postulation from the soapboxes.
Nobody has a clue as to what's next.
I have talked to many people, from different corners of the profession, and the bottom line is that it isn't pretty. And this one is going to be a long one. Architects that went through the last meltdown have said that this is so much worse than the the downturn of the early 80's and the 90's.
No, this is NOT 1939 all over again.But there are parallels.
Then, there was 25 percent unemployment, an absence of resources (like food), and even the wealthiest got hit hard.
This time, unemployment hovers at 10 percent, the resources are frozen (money), and much of the wealthy got out without a scratch.
I see architecture going the way of the horse and buggy, or to use a more contemporary example, the beta-max cassette.
Things are dire out there people. Explore other professions if necessary.
yesterday's this american life included a segment on the faultiness of economic forecasting. who was talking about the faults of economic forecasting? economic forecasters.
economic forecasters and weather forecasters both seem to have more job security than architects - and less liability for their mistakes. where's the justice?
as an kid who knew lots of architects that left the field in the 80s, and a recent graduate who left the field because of the 90s, this is different. much more systemic and paradigm changing. the means of production are changing. the means of accumulating capital and wealth are changing. there are twice as many people on the planet as in the 80s and so there are opportunities - just not the bread and butter variety of architecture that most of us expected to be working on.
I really dont believe pessimists on this one. I want to, I want despair, but Im just not getting it.
Im guessing a nominal unemployment turnaround in first quarter 10', with numbers hanging out around 7 or 8 by the end of next year. Architectures gonna suck for a while longer but that puts us in the ball game at least.
also the previous busts had nothing to do with money lending and real estate and more to do with pets.com type of speculation. the seed money has dried up for now and the question is when will banks begin lending money for new lifestyle centers (read malls) and condos. mix in the loss of value of all the charitable and institutional endowments and you have a real clusterfuck with our profession caught in the middle.
Economic and weather forecasters face their share of ridicule for being "wrong" but they get to keep their jobs because people somewhat understand they are trying to predict the future which is difficult if you don't have my crystal ball.
1. the average public-sector architectural RFP will attract 40+ proposals (each)
2. armies of starving and homeless architects will be trapped in Dubai, unable to leave because of their debt laws
3. somebody will propose to convert vacant, newly-constructed highrise projects into vertical cow pastures - CityCenter is a good candidate
petr1968
"This time, unemployment hovers at 10 percent, the resources are frozen (money), and much of the wealthy got out without a scratch."
There is now a different type of employment and wage structure - with the new feature of structural under-employment (insufficient wages for subsistence as a permanent condition). It also doesn't count the vast number of frustrated job seekers - people who were counted among the unemployed and who would like to work but who have since stopped looking for a job.
Also, some sub-groups and regions are a lot worse off: 15% unemployment for new college grads, 30% unemployment for new high school diplomates, 50% unemployment in Detroit, 50% unemployment for Latinos in Southern California.
.._. ..__._._ _._ and petr1968, i read your posts quickly and skipped over the 'off.' made for a much funner read, maybe i should start reading all posts these way.
2010 PREDICTIONS
Welcome to all famous Archinect new year predictions. let's get real for a change!
My prediction:
99 cent stores will have a hi-end isle for 2 dollar items. ehhehe:)
One year later, Kazys doesn't even seem pessimistic enough, does he?
Woah, Does Jeffrey Inaba really hang around archinect? That man should have like 3823982 of my resumes.
last year it was fun to predict a sour future. but then the future came true...
i predict orange juice jones will have another single out
i don't know, lb. kazys said don't expect to be building anything. we've been building all year, just different things, less expensive things, things that take more design and construction solutions for less compensation. the construction industry is bad, but not dead. the upside is that bids are coming in so low that we can do things we couldn't afford in an up economy.
i'm excited that i'm already hearing more of what kazys suggested, though - a sort of welling up of exuberant fantasy proposals on a large scale: visions of a potential future. architects (because they have time) i guess, are thinking big and being visionary again. whether it's foster or work ac, mad or big, designers are finally creating positive and hopeful visions of a sustainable future city rather than attacking sustainability via incremental live-lesser problem-solving reactions.
dan wood bemoaned the lack of this kind of big thinking when he was here in ky - reminding us of antfarm, superstudio, archigram, yona freedman - but i think it was already beginning to happen anyway.
architects can be idea people again, not just drafters of designs clients already 'designed'. i'm seeing it happen to little firms: clients are actually coming to us for ideas sometimes! crazy, i know!
steven: nice, sounds good to me!
bring on 2010
heres to new challenges and new opportunities
invention and new visions
the question is...who will pay for the big ideas? or even the small ideas? the money sources whether it be lending from the bailed out ones or money from governments is not flowing.
I feel like the dust is starting to settle from the economic devastation to the architecture profession. That's not a good thing -- it just means that there are hardly any more people to lay off and projects still aren't coming back for many. It looks a lot like the early 90s where there are massive comercial and real estate vacancies.
Now we are seeing some pretty reputable firms go completely under (Cubellis) or get swallowed up by largers firms (Elerbe Becket ny AECOM).
I expect that we will be hearing a lot more stories like these in 2010.
If this coming decade turns out to be like the 1990's it wouldn't be a bad thing. It started out ugly, but the longest period of sustained growth in US history occurred during the 1990's. I think that we have already come through the ugly part and are on our way toward stabilization.
As with the 1990's, investors are already picking up commercial real estate at bargain prices. The difference this time is that now we have more global investors. We also have more opportunities for new projects domestically and internationally.
As with previous recessions, credit will become more available with time...as it already has. Money is flowing, it's just not at the rate as it was pre-recession...yet. Confidence that we can overcome our economic troubles is growing.
As for the architecture profession...I am already seeing some job ads for architects with retail, multi-family and mixed-use projects experience. They are not as prevalent as job ads for architects with health care, institutional and government project experience, but none the less. Custom homes and addition/remodels have been picking up over the last few months as well.
Things have definetly improved over the last couple of quarters and I think that the economy will continue to improve. I look forward to 2010 and the coming decade.
i predict that archinecters will stop complaining about being underpaid and start becoming billionaires the easy way!
on second thought, that's not accurate...even with a billion dollars most of us would still b complaining about being underpaid.
long underwear?
99 cent stores in Canada started to sell 2 dollar items YEARS AGO.
Yea, verily, at that time, it is written in the book of Obadiah. A man shall strike his donkey and his nephew's donkey and anyone...in the vicinity...of his nephew or the donkey....
...this great, big, juicy melon behind...
...the nephew or the donkey. [whap] Wha! Woooah!
Tupac will come out of hiding and admit he was never dead all these years.
there are those who have money even in this recession, cash heavy businesses and owners who will be investing as the economy skids along the bottom, "buying in" either by investing in the next big ideas, investing in people and technology, building a better organization, restructuring and positioning to take advantage of the market when it returns... time to refresh your business, reposition and develop marketing strategy
every bad recession there are those who predict the end of the end of the world as we know it, and then it turns out to be a valley in the rolling economic and business cycle...
firms will start to get bits of work here and there over the course of the next year... and we start to see a real recovery towards the end of 2010, new investment being made as people take advantage of the cheaper construction costs, interest rates etc. hopefully
i predict another real estate crash as millions of boomers retire and attempt to sell their investment properties, flooding the market and driving down prices... in fact i'm counting on it as the only way i'm going to be able to afford a reasonable place.
best trends for 2010:
- architecture firms figure out how to truly 'diversify' their practices. and i'm not talking about project types - those who will survive will figure out how to diversify their revenue streams, create new service categories, and generally broaden what it is that they 'do'.
- firms learn how to run very, very lean. this won't be good for people looking to just plug into a firm, put in their 40 and go home, but leaner practices help the profession overall in the long run. having less people do more will actually (and paradoxically) increase our profession's overall footprint
- true expertise is given its due reward. it's time to prove we're truly experts in something, whether that's as unglamorous as sanitation facilities or as sexy as art museums. there is work out there - owners just have the luxury of picking those firms who can demonstrate a real track record of achievement. those that can will continue to do well. sure, there may be some overall dip in work, but i'm seeing some firms actually growing in this economy. btw - this applies to everyone from the one man start up as well as a global design firm.
- the rise of architecture collaboratives. there's too many newly minted 'firms', unemployed wanderers, and generally underutilized people in the churn right now. major victories are going to go to the people who figure out how to productively channel that talent to make a run at certain projects. these don't have to be long term relationships, but it's a difference between wanting to plug into an existing infrastructure (ie an established firm) vs. creating a temporal infrastructure to get the work.
- steady singles will be more valuable than home runs. everyone loves the thrill of a jacked up ball, but the firms which survive will be the ones who compile a ton of (potentially boring) singles and walks.
- rem doesn't get to build any of his dubai hallucinations.
the worst trends for 2010:
- no increase in work. we simply have too much commercial real estate which will default this year to see any real increase in the private sector work overall. the banks are hoping this wave doesn't build up to the frenzied levels of the 08 residential market. every gov't. client we have is freaked out about how to fund the operations of the new buildings they're putting up, never mind funding design and/or construction. we've seen two projects fall into this trap. point being, the one market that's been steadier is going to erode more this year than last.
- we're still at serious risk for an overall double dip recession. which will push recovery out another year or two. or 10.
- we have a ton of graduates coming online with nowhere to place them. just the reality folks - some will get jobs, but it's not going to be pretty this may/june.
- deflationary wage pressures continue to press on the industry. what i see so little reporting on is how many people have either had to take flat out pay reductions (still working the same hours) or take pay cuts with reduced hours. either way, there is a real danger of firms getting way too addicted to these reduced direct costs when putting fee proposals together, thus lowballing to the point where they HAVE to keep everyone at a lower salary just to break even. we've seen enough proposals the last few months that just flat out say 'here's the fee being offered' from every gov't. agency (and they're all about 2% of construction cost lower than what we were getting even 18 mo. ago) that this one fact alone is making me wonder how to keep the practice profitable (ever).
finally, the worst trend of 2010 will be a persistent cloud of uncertainty over everything in our world. it's not good for the psyche to operate under a unrelenting feeling of uneasy pressure and preparation for the worst. we'd all love to see something, anything which will tell us when the storm might pass. it's not going to come this year, i'm afraid.
hunker down all - best of luck to everyone...
You mean like in 1939? Lets get a little perspective here, people.
i'm not suggesting any comparison to that era - i am saying, though, that the personal lives for a lot of people are in a state of not so good flux. that kind of uncertainty produces anxiety. tell me where anxiety (on a personal level) is good?
sorry, perhaps my original wording was too lax - by 'our' world, i mean the world of design and construction. no claims beyond that boundary.
END OF WORLD!
I totally missed that the recent news item was predictions for 2009...
outed - How do diversity of services and expertise in a particular project type co-exist?
think more vertically, less horizontally. if you're an expert on healthcare, you could offer facilities management, design new facilities, provide construction management (not at risk) on other projects, specifically offer masterplanning and programming services, and conceivably design products (beds for example) that could be carried to market. that's 5 different revenue streams off your expertise. only one is what we consider 'traditional' architecture practice.
outed: in that case I wouldn't disagree.
i think we are due for a big volcano explosion that wipes out an entire city in two minutes.
outed - every firm I've worked for who has been around for more than 15 years does this. You simply cannot survive even in good times if you only offer design and/or CDs. I thought this was common knowledge.
for some reason I heard "diversity of services" and I thought things outside of what clients typically expect.
commercial real estate in 2010: down 50%
home prices (us) in 2010: down 30% more
this thing is just getting started. architecture is going to be rare.
my pedagogical $0.02
puddles: yellowstone
Not architecture, but neet :)
Barry, totally awesome.
the world gets bored with hyperbole.
haha well I think we can rest assured that isnt going to happen.
Don't be fooled by the "RA RA RA!!! " postulation from the soapboxes.
Nobody has a clue as to what's next.
I have talked to many people, from different corners of the profession, and the bottom line is that it isn't pretty. And this one is going to be a long one. Architects that went through the last meltdown have said that this is so much worse than the the downturn of the early 80's and the 90's.
No, this is NOT 1939 all over again.But there are parallels.
Then, there was 25 percent unemployment, an absence of resources (like food), and even the wealthiest got hit hard.
This time, unemployment hovers at 10 percent, the resources are frozen (money), and much of the wealthy got out without a scratch.
I see architecture going the way of the horse and buggy, or to use a more contemporary example, the beta-max cassette.
Things are dire out there people. Explore other professions if necessary.
I am.
as an architect who 'went through the last meltdown', i hardly see the death of the profession at hand. good grief.
yesterday's this american life included a segment on the faultiness of economic forecasting. who was talking about the faults of economic forecasting? economic forecasters.
economic forecasters and weather forecasters both seem to have more job security than architects - and less liability for their mistakes. where's the justice?
as an kid who knew lots of architects that left the field in the 80s, and a recent graduate who left the field because of the 90s, this is different. much more systemic and paradigm changing. the means of production are changing. the means of accumulating capital and wealth are changing. there are twice as many people on the planet as in the 80s and so there are opportunities - just not the bread and butter variety of architecture that most of us expected to be working on.
I really dont believe pessimists on this one. I want to, I want despair, but Im just not getting it.
Im guessing a nominal unemployment turnaround in first quarter 10', with numbers hanging out around 7 or 8 by the end of next year. Architectures gonna suck for a while longer but that puts us in the ball game at least.
My prediction:
99 cent stores will become $20 stores due to inflation. There will be no luxury isle. ehhehe:)
also the previous busts had nothing to do with money lending and real estate and more to do with pets.com type of speculation. the seed money has dried up for now and the question is when will banks begin lending money for new lifestyle centers (read malls) and condos. mix in the loss of value of all the charitable and institutional endowments and you have a real clusterfuck with our profession caught in the middle.
Economic and weather forecasters face their share of ridicule for being "wrong" but they get to keep their jobs because people somewhat understand they are trying to predict the future which is difficult if you don't have my crystal ball.
I will only get laid off once.
.._. ..__._._ _._
Lucky you if you only get laid off once; this my THIRD time in 12 years.
I predict an ever-increasing rate of spam of Ugg advertisements in the form of spam postings on Archinect.
1. the average public-sector architectural RFP will attract 40+ proposals (each)
2. armies of starving and homeless architects will be trapped in Dubai, unable to leave because of their debt laws
3. somebody will propose to convert vacant, newly-constructed highrise projects into vertical cow pastures - CityCenter is a good candidate
petr1968 , I meant just once in 2010. Got laid off twice last year, so once would be an improvement.
petr1968
"This time, unemployment hovers at 10 percent, the resources are frozen (money), and much of the wealthy got out without a scratch."
There is now a different type of employment and wage structure - with the new feature of structural under-employment (insufficient wages for subsistence as a permanent condition). It also doesn't count the vast number of frustrated job seekers - people who were counted among the unemployed and who would like to work but who have since stopped looking for a job.
Also, some sub-groups and regions are a lot worse off: 15% unemployment for new college grads, 30% unemployment for new high school diplomates, 50% unemployment in Detroit, 50% unemployment for Latinos in Southern California.
.._. ..__._._ _._ and petr1968, i read your posts quickly and skipped over the 'off.' made for a much funner read, maybe i should start reading all posts these way.
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