Any predictions for tomorrow? Dow down 100, 200, 300, 600? Up 100, 200, 300? Given the events since Friday night it should be a wild ride for sure. Will the Fed sooth worried investors? Will the bank of NY offer a bail out to all comers? Will we all just laugh at 3:30?

dow closed at 11,100.54 last friday

great buying opportunity

check back july 13, 2009 - you will be very happy

My personal uneducated no economics training opinion is 1997 is the real baseline average of the stock market

Asian markets are already open and are actualy advancing based on the Treasury announcements tonight.

you really want the world to end, don't you, evilp?

someone in iran sneezed...down 250

Look at the futures - up 79 at 24:00 Eastern.

i would see dow jones at 9000pts by the end of this year...

bookmarked this thread and thank me later.

I keep hearing S&P 500 to 1200 before the mess starts to turn around.

Also, the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of fear in the markets) is only at 27.50. It usually has to be at least to 35-40 (indicating a crescendo of panic selling) before things turn.

Dow 9K? Mmmm, nah, but I do think it'll bump against 10K. GM will go under (they were removed from the S&P 500 on Friday), many more banks will fail, oil will peak around $155.

Dow futures up 73 at the moment, 24:11 Eastern. Imbev bought Anheiser-Busch, plus the Freddie/Fannie bailout (meaning the government will continue to be a backstop, in this case they're a backstop for the backstop) so tomorrow should be a pretty okay day, up 200 if there's no countervailing bad news.

The vix aggregates the spreads of puts and calls on the SP futures right? So if the spread is near 0 and the trend is down or up in agreement the volitility is near 0 as well.

I love the CBOE - its so much more interesting than the NYSE; If your ever in town I highly recomend visiting the options floor - its the coolest thing to see here.

OF - please explaine the vix more - is the 35-40 range based on historical experiances or what - i thought the volatility index measures "volatility" meaning change - to the good or bad - so if a trend is up or down and everyones in agreement theirs not much volatility -

ahhh- answers.com for needs - your right it says historically above 30 signals a 30 day bottom is in place

is the US gov taking over them fascist?

only if you think fascism takes the form of securing billions of dollars of peoples savings from being lost...

when the government takes over corporations especially large ones in possession of a value that is 1/2 the deficit and is also running record social programs (highest welfare) is that not national socialism?

people savings? you mean the banks assets that people are paying into for a very elite select few who may have that much stock in them?

before didn't the banks and other large corporate bodies have more power over the gov and this would be a reversal of that situation where the gov exerts it's power over them, upon their collapse?

maybe a loss is what needs to happen as the practices they were involved in are highly corrupt. Rather than making new laws to patch the problem wouldn't a redistribution of land ownership by other means like giving people back what the banks for so long have controlled and taken by predatory practices be a better solution?

The VIX is calculated from a ratio of put/call activity on the SPX (an aggregate of the S&P 500). It is a security - you can buy shares and options on the VIX.

Basically, the VIX is designed to move higher if investors buy more puts (bets that the SPX will go down) than calls (bets the SPX will go up). SPX puts are used in this instance as "portfolio insurance" against quick drops in the stock market. If the VIX goes higher, more people are buying this insurance, meaning that more people think the market will drop quickly in the near future. VIX of less than 10 means very few people think the market will drop quickly, VIX greater than 30 or 35 means lots of people expect a quick drop in the stock market, and hence are buying more "portfolio insurance".

Another way of thinking about it is when the VIX gets way low, it reflects bubble conditions - market going higher with no end in sight, exuberent buying, a definite sell signal. When the VIX gets way high, it reflects panic selling - everyone who can sell has sold, and the market has to turn soon because all the sellers have been washed out. In this respect it's used as an indicator of future buying or selling conditions.

very interesting OFG, will commit that to memory by the time I've got money in the market

are these bailed out financial institutions causing the gov to operate at a loss? and risking greater collapse?

The federal government's been running at a loss for a long time now, Anti.

Prediction markets now split at an 11000 year-end close.

VIX for some reason didnt spike to 35. Some say so many people were expecting a crash to lower levels it didn't happen. I thought we were going to see 10400-10600 in the Dow this summer.

I'm starting to think it's value might becoming more limited than it was say a yr ago since its too striking of an indicator. Too many ppl use it.

Either way banks are still screwed, Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac are still in trouble (they were apparently leveraged 20-30x times their total equity! not even the most aggressive hedge funds stick their necks out like that), and we still have serious inflation issues from a Fed that will refuse to raise interest rates to make sure their Wall Street bank buddies will stay solvent. Post election I could imagine the mother of all crashes when the Fed lets go of the strings propping up the market and try to blame it on Obama.

for those who has this wishful thinking that dow will stay at 11000, this is your last call to jump!!

bookmark this page and thank me later.

We'll see, some decent things have happened in the last week.

I'll remain cautiously optimistic. Wells Fargo's earning were a nice surprise and oil looks poised to go down to more reasonable levels.

Just gambling. No one knows.

Last week was a lot of things, but there hasn't been capitulation yet. There has yet to be the great washing out of sellers. Banks were up on a couple of earnings (and on the fact that it's now harder to short the banks, unless you make markets in the banks, but that doesn't make it the bottom.

Lots of earnings out this week. See you next Sunday.

You could say that was capitulation based on VIX since it did crack 30, financials did recover like it was capitulation but the overall market still looks sick. but I would agree the big washout for the intermediate term hasn't arrived yet. I'm thinking either soon or maybe in August. Then the market gets whacked again next earnings cycle.

(last) May 1st was the highest it may ever be again


today was a big negative

any idea when we will hit 10,000 ?

dow closes at 11,131.08

up 31 points since this thread began

I got a great audio book:

Kevin Phillips- Bad Money it talks about allot of stuff i knew little about, how the Fed is able to save the market artificially every time and allot of other historical context to the current economic situation.

today was a big positive.

dow up 266 points ~ any idea when we will hit 15,000?

closes at 11,397.56

i don't thing it will ever go over 13,000 again

black monday II when the feds took over the major bank

i bet it will be above 13,000 within 5 years

bush took a dump on all tax payers... sell short

this year i dun have any stock, only long/short the futures.

little money and gain big if u catch the wave.

Crazy, crazy times!


Still, though, cautiously optimistic. Probably not a bottom yet, but getting closer and closer. Oil down so much, so fast adds to the excitements!

oil and commodities is not over yet!

is just that money move from commodities to stock, in two month around Oct, u see stock plunge and commodites rebound.

disclaimer- no holding of commodities (sold long ago), now only call/put warrents.

dow up 186 points

closes at 11,583.69

dow closed friday at 11,421.99

basically moving sideways past 2 months

should be interesting to see the reaction after obama wins this november

aspect's prediction of a stock plunge in october is probably correct - usually just before an election (similar thing back in 2000)

wish I were confident he'll win. It is tied now.

I see no reason why anything will go up for a while. News just gets worse and worse. My cautious optimism has evaporated.

Ive been told markets move in 20 year cycles

u will not be seeing dow @ 115xx for the rest of the year.

in Oct, u will see the true face.

listen to me now and thank me later.

October nothing. The Dow futures are down 247 right now on news of the Lehman talks collapsing.

I was really busy on Friday, but it crossed my mind, "Hey, I really need to buy some OEX or SPX puts, Monday is going to be really active". Looked up, and it was 1:15 PM (3:15 Central) and the pits had JUST closed. FUCKING PROJECTS!!!

i'll second old fogey - the real bloodbath is just beginning.

bank on a 5-10% drop in the dow this month.

expect a few more private firms with a ton of exposure to go down in the next month. october may be the bottom looking up.

(even though it will be painful as hell for some companies, it's going to be a good thing long term).

yes, it would be nice to have a clear bottom.

it is going to get ugly, for sure.


I'll just sit back and watch and wait (and thank god I left things in money market accounts!)

Tomorrow should be very bad, given lb's probable bankruptcy. Sounds like the investors are shorting on everything, which is bad news for many more financial institutions.
Has me very worried about the financial state of the building industry. Does not bode well for the profession -a all especially recent grads. I have been all doom and gloom for the last couple of years, but it looks to be even worse than I thought. Greeenspans's latest opinions are terrible (although he seems to take no responsibility for the mess.)

Lehman goes out, that'll be okay.
Merrill gets taken out by Bank of America? Okay.

WaMu goes out of business? Okay.
Wachovia out? Okay.

Bank of America goes out of business? Not okay.
Goldman Sachs goes out of business? Not okay.

Of course, I would have thought we'd have been down 2000 when Fannie and Freddie went out. They were the freakin' BACKSTOP.

yeah, way to go greenspan...

Correction. Merrill's already gone.

I don't profess to understand the markets that well but I do pay attention. It strikes me that BofA just absorbed Countrywide what, a couple of months ago? And now it's buying Merrill Lynch? Aren't they the guys with the bull in the commercials? How much can BofA take? Call me naive but these events have me worried, to say the least.

And Sarah is right, when Greenspan says these sorts of things, I get even more worried.

Did all of this happen on Sunday because the market would go nuts if it had happened on a trading day?

I think that if Goldman Sachs starts to experience trouble, they should ask for some of those gigantic Christmas bonuses back that they gave out last year. Or not.

mini dow -349!!

Saturday and Sunday are about the only times when worldwide markets aren't open. Big things like this have to happen when the markets are closed because the outcomes generate such huge volatilities, whomever was open at the time would immediately experience panic selling, which would spread like a contagion around the world.

Just like tomorrow! The Hang is already open I guess, but since this is "our" news, the ball probably won't start rolling until the premarket which starts up when, 6:30 - 7:00AM EST?

Who's exposed to Lehman?

I heard that CNA in Chicago had 2.5% of their assets in Freddie and Fannie. OUCH! I am not sure if any of it was in preferred. Layoffs? That's what the Tisch Bros. usually do.

AIG is in trouble.

WaMu is in trouble as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they closed a lot of bricks and mortar in order to cut down their overhead. Will the Chicago branches make it? I doubt it.


This is going to affect our profession a great deal. Hope for the best!

OldFogey> the whole asia market is closed today monday (except taiwan) because of the holidays.

now we all wait to see the drama at dow tonight (our time) instead.

because of the mid autumn festival.

last week, i jumped in to buy gold, because i do not believe US dollar will stay at this level.

however, future dow has always been a tool to generate panic selling in asia.

The dollar is gonna' sink and that means foreign investors in US securities are gonna loose a bundle.

Shades of 1992 when Alan Greenspan told Bush 1 that if he didn't raise taxes to cut the deficit, interest rates would have to be raised to 12% to keep the foreign investors from deserting US securities.

It's a very volatile period here in the USA. As Greenspan said it's a once in a hundred years occurrence. I would say once every 20 years.

i do not believe a word greenspan said, he said it at the beginning of the year that the worst had passed.

i think greenspan is working for some finiance corporation, u never know how many "puts" he invested.

wonder if you have bought puts at lehman, can u still have your money back?

wonder if you have bought puts at lehman, can u still have your money back? Several of McCain's top campaign have lobbied for Lehman. That's when you call home favors and ask the Fed to bail you out!

Over the weekend, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York called together the leaders of most major financial firms in an effort to get them to act collectively to stem any possible panic, but could not force a deal.

In a way, that was similar to what happened a little more than a century ago, when the financier J.P. Morgan called the heads of all the trust companies in New York to a meeting in his library, and demanded that they agree to put up money to stop the bank run at another trust company.

The bankers did not want to do so, in part because they would need that money if the panic spread. Morgan locked the door, and kept the presidents in the library until morning, when they finally gave in. No such coercion exists this year.

From the NY Times today

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/15/business/15market.html?hp

Aspect said: "OldFogey> the whole asia market is closed today monday (except taiwan) because of the holidays." According to the Taiwan Stock Exchange website, they're down 4.43% at 13:21 local time. The Dow closed at 11,312 on Friday, 4.43% of that would be 501 points.

I closed my WaMu accounts on Thursday.

anyone catch the screened off portico @ the white house tonight?

youtube

umm... tomorrow is going to be a very interesting day

-will the rest of the damage @ galveston be shown? heard several hundred may have drowned

-stock market opening.. will it drop below 10k?

and that's before we get to the political games...

oldfogey> funny how india & taiwan has been up for the past weeks without particular reason while the rest of asia drops... and today only india & taiwan open, what a coincident.


tonite is the nite (asian time) for republican to save Mccain!

may be cut interest rate as last time??

so my gold can shoot up!

ha... my wishful thinking.

Your gold did shoot up, that was a good call.

Shades of 1992 when Alan Greenspan told Bush 1 that if he didn't raise taxes to cut the deficit, interest rates would have to be raised to 12% to keep the foreign investors from deserting US securities.

Bush's tax increase was in the 1990 budget and to my knowledge had more to do with the slowing economy and balooning deficit. Greenspan was nothing like Volker and would never have raised rates that high. What we had going on back then was nothing compared to today. Today the new fed chairman is similar to Greenspan in that he'll just try to print [money] his way out of this, which will debase the currency.

I too bought gold/silver the past few weeks. Notice that the spot prices are being manipulated as the supply, especially for silver, is very tight. Global demand for precious metals is astounding and the spot prices have not reflected that.

actually i bought gold for mid term till dec. the rebound is less than i thought, may be wait till AIG...

ok, tomorrow will be bloodbath for asia... i think many will stay up tonite...

aquapura> from my understanding, the cost of mining gold/oz is about USD700, so if u buy at 750, will be quite safe...

correct me if i'm wrong, dun blame me if u loose money in gold, commodity future is very hard to play.

"Greenspan was nothing like Volker and would never have raised rates that high. What we had going on back then was nothing compared to today. Today the new fed chairman is similar to Greenspan in that he'll just try to print [money] his way out of this, which will debase the currency. "

Greenspan believes (and always has) that inflation is the number one problem to be dealt with. He never printed money to get out of anything.

i think US govn. cannot afford not to save AIG, the impact will be worldwide...

today, everyone in the city called their insurance agent, i did called also...

gold up 10% last nite.

black gold has dropped to about $95/barrel

bailout plans got approved.

but ted spread is at record high.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

something very wrong here.

stocks will go down a bit more, then go up a bit, then down a bunch of points, then up a real lot, then down, then up.....rinse and repeat...

i hope theres a revolution.....

I'll pass on a revolution....and we go back to buying a nice gun and heading to the mtns.


Coincidentally, I just rented a cabin/house for the weekend in the middle of nowhere up in the mtns. Gorgeous aspens up there, saw 20 or so shooting stars. Just lovely.

I think I could handle that. Plus, they've got satellite internet, for better or worse.

dow 5xxpts. die hard!

Well things don't look like they're working out very well.

i hate to be right at every prediction i made here.

uptill the last one i made last friday.

OooWee, down 500 to 9447 today.

GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY!

(if your focus is long-term, with a balanced portfolio, this is the time)

It was a great buying opportunity up 2000 from here...there is no solution in site.

Guessing the election will determine a lot. M/P get it and it'll be time to pull.

sight

I still hate not having an edit button

M/P will not win and are looking more desperate every day

Obama will save our country!

i agree it was a great buying opportunity last friday...

i bought put also for long term investment.

Dow 8,751.30 -506.80 (-5.47%)

we'll hit a bottom eventually ..

:'(

-679

you are correct, sir!

an even better buying opportunity (*cue laughter*)

buy now before it goes lower

dow @ 8,579.19 on 9th oct08, according to my first prediction at this thread in july, target reached.

however, i think i was too optimistic.

my architectural contributions to dow jones,

title- sucking black hole

Well played, aspect, well played.

where does it go from here, aspect?

or are you saying it will all collapse to a singularity (1 point)

the Lehman credit default swaps are revealed tomorrow. i predict a 10% drop. that "my friends" will be the bottom.

let's put this in perspective though; the market today hit is at it's low since 2003, and that is 2 years after 9/11. so, i think the trend after november will be upward, and not because of obama.

free ramos> i have no idea! that's part of the fun of blackhole ^^

dow jones +-1000pts last night!

short selling restarted and casino reopened. heha! wish i was here!

finally an up day yay!

Dow 9,387.61 +936.42 (+11.08%)
NASDAQ 1,844.25 +194.74 (+11.81%)
S&P 1,003.35 +104.13 (+11.58%)

should be down 1200 points tomorrow!!

the archinect vote count down is a great indicator of when dow jones will crash again! ha!

i have a feeling that monday is "the day"...

*have my calls ready on last friday*

Today, all day I had the feeling
A miracle would happen
I know now I was right

Tonight, tonight
The world is full of light
With suns and moons all over the place

Tonight, tonight
The world is wild and bright
Going mad
Shooting sparks into space

Believe, believe in me, believe
Believe that life can change
That you're not stuck in vain
Were not the same, were different tonight
Tonight, so bright
Tonight

And you know you're never sure
But you're sure you could be right
If you held yourself up to the light
And the embers never fade in your city by the lake
The place where you were born

Believe, believe in me, believe
Believe in the resolute urgency of now
And if you believe there's not a chance tonight
Tonight, so bright
Tonight

We'll crucify the insincere tonight
We'll make things right, well feel it all tonight
We'll find a way to offer up the night tonight
The indescribable moments of your life tonight
The impossible is possible tonight
Believe in me as I believe in you, tonight

i bet the Dow doesn't hit 14,000 again for another 5 years