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HURRICANE RITA

abracadabra

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA OF RITA UNTIL LATER
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS TYPICAL OF AN INTENSE HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR EYE
SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 120 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM
BOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR
7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS. I
WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO REACH RITA TO INCREASE THE WINDS
FURTHER...IF NECESSARY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AND RITA...AS KATRINA DID...WILL BE CROSSING THE LOOP
CURRENT OR AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO. THIS WOULD AID THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THEREAFTER...THE
INTENSITY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY CHANGES IN THE EYEWALL WHICH ARE
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IN THE AREA OF THE LOOP CURRENT SO
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED....BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. RITA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD...RITA WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BASICALLY TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND.
THEREFORE THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINLY. ON
THIS TRACK AND DUE TO THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA...A
HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 
Sep 21, 05 4:27 pm
abracadabra

my sister lives in sugarland near houston. she says; most freeways are bumper to bumper. new orleans victims who are staying in fooball stadium, are being transported to arkansas (nice oppotunistic move outta houston!). Galveston evacuated. no bottled water in stores. what if..

Sep 21, 05 5:00 pm  · 
 · 
mwad

My cousin is coming in from Houston to dodge the storm. But my uncle is forced to stay in Galveston as he works in the main hospital there. They are saying its cat. 5 now!

Sep 21, 05 6:11 pm  · 
 · 
A Center for Ants?

hello, rita.

Sep 21, 05 6:16 pm  · 
 · 
e

i betcha chertoff won't be receiving updates on this hurricane from the comforts of his own home like his did during katrina.

Sep 21, 05 7:13 pm  · 
 · 
ochona

marfa is looking real good right about now.

Sep 21, 05 7:17 pm  · 
 · 
ochona

also: they just had a report on NPR on preparations for rita on the texas gulf coast. they interviewed a convenience store clerk in freeport who said that evacuees were stocking up on smokes, beer, and lottery tickets.

Sep 21, 05 7:22 pm  · 
 · 
MysteryMan

It's a CAT5! Ohhhh, boyyyyyy!

Sep 21, 05 7:37 pm  · 
 · 
3ifs

please o please o please let it head straight for crawford, TX...

Sep 21, 05 7:55 pm  · 
 · 
abracadabra

000
WTNT33 KNHC 220008
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

CORRECTED PRESSURE CONVERSION TO 26.52 INCHES

...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUING TO DEEPEN...
...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
ON RECORD...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.

THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 898 MB...26.52 INCHES. THIS MAKES
RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...898 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

Sep 21, 05 8:52 pm  · 
 · 
WonderK

What does "third most intense on record" mean? Sorry I couldn't read the rest of that last post, the caps hurt my eyes.....

Sep 21, 05 11:00 pm  · 
 · 
MysteryMan

This one's gonna get us. I think the Gulf Coast is gonna get hammered again. The only good news is that maybe 'Jr' will be exiled to Crawford, and possibly we'll get the point.

Sep 21, 05 11:06 pm  · 
 · 
manamana

I think by "most intense" they mean lowest pressure, which pretty well correllates to strength. 898 mb is insane...

record is 889 I think.

Sep 21, 05 11:19 pm  · 
 · 
A

I grew up in the Houston area. That city is the capital of the world in the oil business. If you think Katrina hit you at the gas pump...get yourself ready. Time to hope and pray that Rita slams into Mexico. If this one pushes the refineries on the Texas coast off-line I'd expect gasoline to spike near $4/gallon nation wide. Possibly more.

Sure, that might not mean much for you and your fancy new hybrid. Then again, consider what that does to construction costs. Oil is a huge factor in construction. As architects you should be concerned right there. Also consider what it does to the costs of everything. If you know your global economies and how everything is inter-related you should be very very scared. Worst case senario, this winter will be one of great recession for the entire world. Europe and Asia have more to worry since their economies are even more stagnut than the currently weak US economy.

As much as people love to hate Texas, Wall Street and most business people in the world know how important it is to the global economy. New Orleans can sink into the mud and the world would stop for only a second. If we loose Texas the global economy would be in disarray for years.

Sep 21, 05 11:33 pm  · 
 · 
BOTS

To counter point...

New mind that the hurricane season is lasting longer and producing more powerful storms. Global warming.... possibly. But fuck, what about the oil and the economy.

A- the worst case senario is not global resession but the millions that will continue to suffer through more aggressive and frequent weather patterns. I bet if it wasn't affecting the south coast of the US it wouldn't even register.

Most business people in the world know how important (Texas?) is to the global economy, unfortunately they don't know how important the environment is.

Let's get a sence of perspective here.

Sep 22, 05 4:24 am  · 
 · 
ochona

3ifs -- if the hurricane hits crawford then that means it hits waco, too.

and sorry to mention this, but waco is a (surprising?) bastion of liberalism in texas. baylor university is there, which many probably don't associate with free thinking, and basically waco is another pleasantly underemployed college town except with the antiquated nickname "jerusalem on the brazos."

on a side note crawford is (i believe) represented in congress by democrat chet edwards, who was one of only two WD-40 members of congress (white democrats over 40) to survive TX's re-redistricting of 2003.

i may be wrong, they did a lot of freaky stuff during that redistricting session. austin was chopped up into the corners of four congressional districts. i'm represented by a R from san antonio, moving into a district that includes the rio grande valley, and my co-worker's congressman lives in houston.

and if a hurricane hits crawford it'll hit austin. and me. so...careful what you wish for...

Sep 22, 05 5:57 am  · 
 · 
BOTS
Oil workers flee as Rita advances
Sep 22, 05 7:43 am  · 
 · 
BOTS

some battening of hatches maybe required me thinks



Sep 22, 05 7:47 am  · 
 · 
doberman

i bet Jr's golf balls will go real far with all that wind.

Sep 22, 05 7:49 am  · 
 · 
MightyMouse

Guys, this is not a laughing matter. First of all, get your geography straight. Crawford (taking in to consideration the drive time due to evacuation) is 22 - 36 hours from Houston. This storm should not be wished upon anyone. The entire city of Houston can't get out of the city. If we get hit here in Houston, the deathtoll will make Katrina look like a summer shower. 1 - 3 million people stuck in a bottleneck on every exit out of houston and 5 million who are scared to leave and get stuck on the freeways during the storm. We are the 4th largest city in the United States. Republican or Democrat this one's going to hurt.

Sep 22, 05 8:09 am  · 
 · 
Manteno_Montenegro

I'm sorry, did you say that Crawford Texas is 22-36 hours from Houston...

By what, walking?

Sep 22, 05 9:28 am  · 
 · 
freebornman

i think i'm selling my car....gas is going to hit $5 after this beast rolls through the ship channel. we are fucked

Sep 22, 05 12:49 pm  · 
 · 
e

manteno, i believe tboy said 22-36 hours to crawford taking into consideration the evacuation. i've heard it taking 5-6 hours to go 30 miles right now.

Sep 22, 05 1:06 pm  · 
 · 
bRink

Is it me, or shouldn't they open up inbound lanes to outbound traffic? It doesn't make sense that you have half an empty highway when traffic is bottlenecked... Traffic could be moving twice the speed...

Sep 22, 05 1:29 pm  · 
 · 

makes sense brink but, for some reason, the shots i saw of the highway on the news showed some traffic going inbound as well. not many cars, but some. don't understand why...

Sep 22, 05 1:53 pm  · 
 · 

Ah, the invention of changable/movable highway dividers.

Sep 22, 05 1:58 pm  · 
 · 
Crumpets

I read they were going to open both ways soon, possibly tonight. Of course, in the future they are going to need a better plan once a full evacuation occurs again. Seeing that traffic is just ridiculous.

Sep 22, 05 2:10 pm  · 
 · 

My brother used to play this great on the piano. I bet the sheet music is still in the piano bench, too. I've never seen the movie, however. But, who needs movies, right?

Sep 22, 05 2:19 pm  · 
 · 
abracadabra

sugarland, texas via my sister 30 minutes ago.
valuntary evacuation. freeways bumper to bumper, nowhere to go. all important documents, jewelery (she is into gold) and emergency supplies in three suitcases. all lose objects in the garden stored in garage. hallway in the middle of the house designated as storm ride out. full tank of gas. some neighbors who left 12 hours ago are only 15 miles away.
forecaster avila says the huricane reached it's peak and slightly weakening.

11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY
FOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING
SHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

Sep 22, 05 2:27 pm  · 
 · 
http://www.elite.net/~gurpal/movie/exodus.mid
Sep 22, 05 2:30 pm  · 
 · 
abracadabra

Rita Novel, i couldn't resist to this excerpt from hurricane news somewhere. ;)

...Marie Aldrich, bar manager of the Poop Deck on the seawall, was open for business and posted a sign reading "No Rita Unless It's a Margarita." ...

Sep 22, 05 8:39 pm  · 
 · 
Mason White

can we introduce Rita to Crawford?

Sep 23, 05 2:07 am  · 
 · 
BOTS

freebornman - $5 for your gas and you think your fucked. I can't remember paying so little!

Sep 23, 05 4:01 am  · 
 · 

Happy Birthday Abracadabra!

Sep 23, 05 2:21 pm  · 
 · 
abracadabra

thank you Rita. you are the best..

Sep 23, 05 2:25 pm  · 
 · 
e

abra's birthday? aw, happy happy abra.

Sep 23, 05 2:26 pm  · 
 · 
mdler

good thing global warming is a bunch of BS

Sep 23, 05 2:31 pm  · 
 · 
e

yeah, i wonder what bush's thoughts are on global warming now.

Sep 23, 05 2:35 pm  · 
 · 
abracadabra

thank you e.
.5 century today. growing up never ends. the fun part of living..

Sep 23, 05 2:41 pm  · 
 · 
e

whoa, a big one. nice. i've heard ppl buying their friends a half century gift of 50 nice and different beers. i hope you are so lucky.

Sep 23, 05 2:49 pm  · 
 · 
French

happy birthday from overseas abracadabra, one of the most respectable and interesting contributors to these forums.

Sep 24, 05 5:27 am  · 
 · 
johndevlin

Rita: are you angry these days?

Sep 24, 05 5:49 am  · 
 · 
abracadabra

thank you French.
i am up at 3 am following the storm wishing well for people's lives including my sister who is on the outside swirl of the hurricane.

Sep 24, 05 6:20 am  · 
 · 
French

Gosh. Hope it's not gonna be as bad as the last one. Try to get some sleep. I'am bck at work to finish a competition, but I'll keep thinking about all those poor people trapped in this mess. What about those in traffic jams? Aren't they in a more dangerous situation than if they had stayed at home?

Sep 24, 05 6:38 am  · 
 · 
e

seems chertoff is taking his job a bit more seriously this time round.

Sep 24, 05 12:23 pm  · 
 · 
e

best wishes to your sister abra.

Sep 24, 05 12:23 pm  · 
 · 
Louisville Architect

oooo, good photo! mr. bush's handlers will certainly get a bonus for that one.

hope everybody's friends and family came through ok. doesn't look like there were any large disasters, but maybe some more personal ones.

Sep 24, 05 12:47 pm  · 
 · 
abracadabra

e, thank you. my sister and her husband are fine and i am relieved hurricane rita mainly spared large number of people. last few days were difficult specially dealing with our worrying mother in turkey who has high blood pressure.
this is a big relief for the country and i hope the experience of these hurricanes humbled us. i am a firm believer that in 21 st century human beings will catch up with compassion and kindness to each other regardless of religion and color.

tina is gonna be pissed of when she discovers her secret stash of pain killers are half gone..

Sep 24, 05 1:57 pm  · 
 · 

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